Polkadot: The next disruptive innovation
Introduction
Disruptive technologies have shown a significant increase in the cryptocurrency market since the implementation of Bitcoin digital currency, becoming of great interest due to their potential effects on the market and value network. A better comprehension of some major disrupts science and technology-related parameters, such as strategic proposals, performance trajectories, and sustaining technologies [1], is relevant for providing market management strategies and business.
Although disruptive technologies tend to be excellent opportunities, the established customers tend to ignore them.
Therefore, this research investigated the Polkadot ecosystem, focusing on a better understanding of the programmer’s team, the Polkadot community, and the probable future of the project.
The Polkadot ecosystem
Polkadot is a very younger coin (DOT). On November 14, 2016, programmer genius Gavin Wood introduced the first interoperability smart contracts system by publishing the article entitled “Polkadot: vision for a heterogeneous multi-chain framework” [2].
In my opinion, it is the third disruptive innovation in the cryptocurrency market. The first one was introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto, a peer-to-peer electronic cash system [3], the second was the invention of smart contracts from Vitalik Buterin [4]. And finally, the connection between all chains, a multi-chain framework created by Gavin Wood [5]. Paraphrasing Neil Armstrong, true interoperability is one small step for Gavin, one giant leap for the crypto community.
The Polkadot community on Github is composed of an interesting committed leader and a critical mass of members. There are active online discussions, 3,200 ‘stargazers’, people who observe the program, including me, 656 forks, copies of the repository, 360 watchers, persons monitoring all activity, 216 issues, tasks and bugs to solve, 48 pull requests, the heart of collaboration on GitHub, 125 contributors, programmers from the outside of the project that wants to contribute, and 51 members. Again, serious projects have great teams. Protect yourself from scams by examining the coin community before investing.
Polkadot went public in 2020, reaching a 4 billion Market Cap at $4.80 per DOT token [6]. At the time of this writing, tokens are trading for more than $36 per DOT (Profit +750%).
Polkadot Waves model
Based on the Altcoin Waves hypothesis [7], the Polkadot Waves model was built and provided an opportunity to investigate possible scenarios in the altcoins market, because many people buy altcoins and then wait for the moon, but in fact, the market occurs in waves.
Using the Altcoin Waves model to predict the wave of Polkadot, the cosine similarity was 84.87%. In this way, the 1st Polkadot wave was created by combining the waves from the top 3 altcoins market cap (Figure 2).
Figure 2 shows the Polkadot Waves model processed and projected in the present scenario (2021). The model did not present a good similarity and a statistical difference was observed at a confidence level of 95%. This simple model may be envisaged as an alternative tool for the cryptocurrency cycles study.
Finally, according to the model, if the supercycle is confirmed, the predicted price points to possible profits between +105% and +330%. This is not financial advice.
Conclusion
The Polkadot ecosystem has been investigated and a prevalence of a strong team in Polkadot was observed. But the DOT token presents the same problem to solve of other tokens, the inflation. For example, DOT in September 2020 had a Circulating Supply of 852,647,705 DOT, while in April 2021 has 933,842,633 DOT, an annual inflation rate of ~16% (insane).
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Acknowledgments
The author is grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto, Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, Changpeng Zhao, Sabrina Moraes, Fernando Ulrich, André Fauth, Criptomaníacos, and Vela Trader.
References
1. https://hbr.org/1995/01/disruptive-technologies-catching-the-wave
2. https://polkadot.network/PolkaDotPaper.pdf
3. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
4. https://ethereum.org/en/whitepaper/
5. https://medium.com/on-the-origin-of-smart-contract-platforms/on-the-origin-of-polkadot-c7750e2fc5ff
